Preview : Champions League Semi Final Liverpool vs Chelsea

The war of words had begun ever since the draw was made. Rafa and Jose had not shaken hands since. Yes, they are not friends but these two men are two of the best tacticians in the game today. When Manuel Mejuto Gonzalez blows the whistle for the kickoff, the war shifts to the pitch. Two teams of 11 set to do battle to earn a place in the grand final in Athens.

Liverpool
Liverpool enters the 2nd leg trailing by a goal scored by Joe Cole at Stamford Bridge a week ago. As such, they need to score 2 goals to go to Athens. Nonetheless, the red half of Merseyside is buzzing ahead of the 2nd leg semifinal. The opportunity to go to Athens and win it for the sixth time in their history will surely spur the Kopites to create a tremendous atmosphere at Anfield. In the recent weekend, Rafa rested Agger, Carragher, Gerrard, Finnan, Riise, Mascherano and Crouch in their league match against Portsmouth. Fielding a 2nd string squad, the reds lost the game 2-1. The result is not expected to affect the players as Rafa used the memories of Istanbul to motivate his team; if need motivating at all. Besides the long term injuries to players such as Kewell, Rafa will have a full strength squad to choose from.

Liverpool is expected to field a 4-4-2 formation at home. The need to find the all important first goal would encourage Rafa to choose 4-4-2 instead of the 4-5-1 system he used at Stamford Bridge. Rafa would most probable line up with the following players

Reina
Finnan Carragher Agger Arbeloa
Gerrard Alonso Mascherano Riise
Kuyt Crouch

Yes, 18YB expect Gerrard to be deployed as a right midfielder. Rafa likes his team to have two front sweepers in front of his defence. Mascherano and Alonso are the best in the business in the position. Riise would provide the defensive stability down the left flank. Gerrard as always, will find himself coming in from the right to get more involved. He is Mr Liverpool and would most probably the most important player for the Liverpool tonight. Liverpool need to get him on the ball to create things. Upfront, Kuyt and Crouch will be the preferred pairing. Fowler is past his prime and Bellamy hasn’t really done himself any good with his lack of form lately. Another possibility is the omission of Alonso. This would mean Pennant playing and Gerrard in the middle. Alonso played majority of the game against Portsmouth. But then again, Rafa ALWAYS rotates so there could still be surprises in his starting eleven.

History is on Liverpool’s side for this encounter. Out of 8 Champions League semifinals the reds are involved in, they have lost only once. In 13 European semi finals at Anfield, Liverpool has only lost once. Liverpool under the charge of Rafa Benitez, has lost only 9 out of 42 games in Europe. Basically, based on past achievements, a Liverpool win is on the cards.

There are also personal missions amongst the Liverpool players. If Peter Crouch scores again to increase his tally to 8 goals, he will break the record of most goals scored in a European Cup campaign. Goalkeeper Pepe Reina is hoping to emulate his father in appearing in a European Cup Final. His father represented for Atletico Madrid in 1974.

Expect another magical European night in Anfield. Expect the fans to sing YWNWA at the top of the voices. The roar of the Kop is said to be worth a goal start.

Chelsea
Chelsea comes into the tie with a few wounded men. Nonetheless they arrive at Anfield with a goal lead and if they can sneak a goal, they are in a commanding position because Liverpool would then need to score 3 to win. As earlier mentioned, Chelsea will not have the following players due to injury: Andrei Shevchenko, Carvalho and Michael Ballack. They would be, though, welcoming back Arjen Robben back from injury. Chelsea didn’t have the opportunity to rest their players during the weekend so yet highly unlikely, tiredness could play a part in the tie. With the abovementioned injuries, 18YB expect Jose to field the following line up:

Cech
Ferreira Essien Terry Cole
Makelele
Cole Lampard Mikel Kalou/Robben
Drogba

Looking at the players available, 18YB expect Chelsea to play 4-3-3 with Kalou/Robben and Cole playing the wide roles. This 4-3-3 becomes a defensive 4-5-1 during defending as Cole and Kalou tuck into midfield. As seen from previous matches, Liverpool faces difficulty breaking down teams playing 4-5-1. Mikel and Lampard will be at the centre of the park while Makelele will sit in front of the back four, allowing the attackers to do the business. Essien will cover for the missing Carvalho. This could be an area of weakness for Crouch to exploit in the air. Terry is massive for Chelsea in this tie. He needs to stabilize his back four especially in the Anfield atmosphere. Drogba as usual will be leading the line for Chelsea and based on recent meetings, Drogba has been effective in the physical battle with Agger. Another setup Jose can use is his diamond shaped midfield but the lack of a 2nd striker might not encourage him. If diamond shaped midfield is used, expect Kalou to play as a 2nd striker.

Chelsea has lost only one of their away games in this season campaign. That was 1-0 defeat to Werder Bremen. If Chelsea was to win the Champions League, Mourinho will be the third man to guide two different teams to the title. Ashley Cole will be targeting to reach the final as the only British player to appear in the final in successive seasons.


What could happen?
18YB will risk sticking his head out of the window by saying that the game would be won through the striker-defender battles. We do not deny the fact that games are won in the midfield but both these team have such superb midfielders that we can’t possible separate the winner between the Makelele-Lampard vs Gerrard-Mascherano/Alonso battle. The striker-defender battles mentioned earlier refer to the action that will occur at both 18 yard boxes.

The first of the key battle is the battler between Essien and Crouch. Why Essien u might ask? It is only logical for Crouch to stick himself to Essien. By probability, an aerial battle with Essien is easier than going up for a ball with John Terry. The unavailability of Carvalho is huge plus because Carvalho is a very effective defender against Peter Crouch in past meetings. So expect the Liverpool strikers to choose their defenders. Crouch will stick to Essien with the hope of winning the aerial battles. With this in mind, expect the reds to adopt a very direct approach. Hoist the ball up to Crouch for his knockdowns of his hold up play. With these knockdowns, expect the likes of Gerrard and even Riise to bomb forward to get those knockdowns. As such 2nd balls are very important to be won in such tight matches.

Another strategy that Liverpool can adopt is to play early crosses into the box, Kuyt and Crouch could win a fair share of the aerial battles. Unfortunately though, Liverpool doesn’t often do that. 18YB hope Rafa is listening to this, “Knock the ball in early” In games against PSV and Arsenal, early crosses often catches the defence off guard; less time for Terry to organize his defence especially with the makeshift central defender alongside him.

Liverpool must also be wary of conceding a lot of unnecessary free kicks or corners. Chelsea is good at set pieces. Lampard and Drogba can hurt from direct free kicks while Terry is a threat in set piece situations.

Liverpool will need to draw in the energy of the crowd and hit Chelsea early. The reds will attack from the start chasing for the goal. Riise has mentioned in the press that they need to score first. 18YB agrees. A goal early would get the crowd going and would lift the players. A goal in the first half is the ideal run of events for the Anfield faithful. The longer the game goes on without a Liverpool goal, the nervous the Liverpool players and fans become and the more confident Chelsea will get as they adapt to the atmosphere. So an early goal is crucial in this game.

Another battle would be between Agger and Drogba. Chelsea will know that Agger would shadow Drogba. This is exactly what Jose would want to happen. Drogba has had the better of the lesser experienced Agger in past confrontations. So why don’t Rafa put Carra on Drogba. Carragher by nature is not a man marker. He was the man marker when partnered with Hyppia. This is due to Hyppia’s lack of pace. 18YB believes this is the same reason Agger shadows Drogba. Agger has the legs to match Drogba but loses out in the physical battle. So this is a potential weakness for Chelsea to exploit. Expect Drogba to bully him around; get him frustrated. Then, concentration would be affected by emotions.

Also look out for the Chelsea players to run at the Liverpool backline. The likes of Joe Cole, Wright-Phillips, Robben and Kalou like to run with the ball. They have pace to burn and this could be a problem for the likes of Steve Finnan and Carragher. The Liverpool defence has always looked vulnerable to pace.

Expect Chelsea to sit back on their lead for the initial stages of the match. This despite Jose saying that they will attack Liverpool. They will initially be cautious, to help develop confidence and adapting to the atmosphere. They will look to exploit any counter breaking opportunities. With the range of passing of Lampard, expect counter attacks looking for Drogba through the center or the wide men down the flanks. As the game goes on, expect Chelsea to inch forward more often looking to kill the tie off.

Don’t expect fast flowing football. Do not expect stepovers, flicks and backheels. It’s going to be a very scrappy possession match. Do not expect an Arsenal type of football from any of these sides. It might be won by a moment of brilliance or a mistake.

These are what 18YB thinks that happen translate in the tie. We could possibly get it totally wrong. Nevertheless, try to observe the points made above and whether they happen out there later tonight. We at 18YB think that Chelsea has enough to survive at Anfield and go through to Athens.

18YB Predicts Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea (Chelsea go through 2-1 on aggregate)

Michael Ballack, Joe Cole, Lassana Diarra, Didier Drogba and Arjen Robben and for Liverpool Javier Mascherano and Jermaine Pennant are all one booking away from possibly missing out on the Champions League final if their respective sides go through.